The number of people catching coronavirus in England continues to climb and there were around 27,900 new infections per day in the first week of this month, according to the ONS.

Government scientists estimate the R rate for all parts of the UK to remain above one – between 1.3 and 1.5 – meaning the outbreak continues to grow, but it has fallen in England for two consecutive weeks at about 1.2 to 1.4.

Weekly data from the Bureau of National Statistics showed that, for the week ending October 8, a total of 336,500 people would have had Covid-19 at any given time.

One in 160 people may have been a carrier of the virus during this week and the ONS said: “The number of infections has continued to rise rapidly in recent weeks.

Separate estimates from the King’s College London Covid Symptom Study agreed that daily infections are still on the rise – for the eighth week in a row.

This weekly prediction says there are now around 21,600 people infected with the virus every day in England, alongside 27,800 across the UK.

While the numbers are considerably higher than anything since the first wave of spring and the highest of any ONS data in the past five months, they are still pale compared to the March outbreak, when more 100,000 people caught the virus every day.

And the two studies – which release data once a week to estimate the true extent of Britain’s ongoing outbreak – suggest the rate at which the crisis is escalating has plummeted. While the ONS estimate of daily infections has more than doubled from 8,400 to 17,200 at the end of September – a 104 percent increase – this week’s figures marked a 64 percent increase .

The increase in the King’s College project has also slowed, forecasting an increase of more than 116% in mid-September, but it has since fallen to 28% in the most recent week, on October 11.

Professor Tim Spector, who leads the study on symptoms of Covid, said today: ‘The data no longer shows the exponential increases we were seeing a few weeks ago, but clearly shows that new cases are continuing to increase. ‘increase. ”

Government advisers on SAGE were less optimistic about the data and said in their R-rate projection today: “ SAGE is almost certain that the epidemic continues to grow exponentially across the country and is convinced that transmission does not slow down. There is no clear evidence that the trajectory of the epidemic has changed over the past month.

“While the R-value remains above 1.0, infections will continue to grow at an exponential rate. This is currently the case for all regions of England and all have positive growth rates, reflecting the increase in the number of new infections across the country.

The ONS estimates that around 0.62% of the UK population was infected with coronavirus during the week of October 2 to October 8.

This is the highest estimate produced since the data began in late April and a sharp increase from 0.41 percent a week earlier (ending October 1).

“In recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for Covid-19,” the report says, “with current rates highest among older adolescents and young adults.

“Smaller increases are also visible in all other age groups, with the exception of people aged 70 and over.

“ There is clear evidence of varying rates of Covid-19 infection across parts of England, with the highest rates seen in the North West, Yorkshire and the Humber and the North East, all of which have seen sharp increases in recent weeks.

The results of the randomized testing program this week were based on the results of 211,851 swab tests. A total of 1,062 tests were positive out of 926 people living in 723 households.

By using this data and statistically applying it to the entire population – taking into account where people who tested positive lived and their age, for example – researchers can estimate the true size of the epidemic by England.

The Ministry of Health’s official testing program does not detect all infections because the majority of people show no symptoms when infected with Covid-19.

In the week to October 8, to match the period of the ONS study, an average of 12,781 people were diagnosed each day in England, suggesting that less than half of the people (46%) who get the virus are actually tested and have a positive result. .

The Covid Symptom Study from King’s College London made similar findings to the ONS report.

Based on 13,361 swab tests carried out between September 27 and October 11, the team said 27,762 people contracted symptomatic coronavirus each day during this time across the UK. 21,642 of these daily infections were in England. They do not include people who have no symptoms, nor hospital or home patients.

DEATHS ‘COULD REACH 500 PER DAY IN NOVEMBER’

Some researchers predict England could start recording more than 500 daily Covid-19 deaths before the end of the month.

Academics at the University of Cambridge, whose estimates feed No.10’s advisory group, SAGE, estimate that 47,000 people were infected every day in their last screening of October 9.

They estimate that cases double in less than seven days, with a “substantial proportion” of those asymptomatic.

Estimates from the University of Cambridge and researchers at PHE predict that the current trajectory of the outbreak in England could lead to 500 deaths per day by November.  But the government is already locking the country down to prevent this

Estimates from the University of Cambridge and researchers at PHE predict that the current trajectory of the outbreak in England could lead to 500 deaths per day by November. But the government is already locking the country down to prevent this

Despite figures showing cases are still far lower than they were when the spring pandemic peaked, academics predicted 500 people could die every day by October 29.

This is darker than the bold claims of Number 10’s two top advisers, who warned the figure could reach 200 by the end of the month.

Data from Public Health England (PHE) and NHS England on confirmed Covid-19 deaths and antibody prevalence is used, along with information from Google and the ONS on the mixing between different age groups, to predict the numbers.

The numbers are up from last week, but show a smaller increase than what was seen in September, rising 27% in one week (UK) compared to a 114% increase between the 17 and September 24, but no longer the week before the end.

Professor Tim Spector, the epidemiologist in charge of the project, confirmed that his project suggests the rate of increase has slowed.

He said: ‘The data no longer shows the exponential increases we saw a few weeks ago, but clearly shows that new cases continue to rise.

“The Northwest still has the highest number of cases and the fastest acceleration of cases with doubling times of around 10 days. Slowing this rapid increase is a priority.

“ Scotland, Wales, London and the Midlands are slowly increasing with a doubling time of 14 to 28 days and the south and east of England remain relatively stable with five times fewer cases than the regions most affected.

“Our data is about seven to ten days ahead of other sources, which means it acts as an early warning system, while we wait for data from confirmed cases.”

Weekly estimates of actual cases provide the clearest indication of the actual coronavirus situation in Britain.

Daily cases are useful but only reveal the number of people who are showing symptoms of Covid-19. Scientists know that the majority of people who get the disease don’t visibly have it, and many don’t even notice it.

Hospitalizations and death tolls are the most worrying indicators, but those late weeks, if not months, behind high-growth outbreaks, meaning they aren’t changing quickly enough to be a basis for action.

By the time deaths reach significantly higher levels, it is generally considered too late to act.

England’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam explained this week that the increase in cases is now translating into hospital admissions and deaths that will inevitably occur in the coming weeks due to infections that have already occurred. It remains to be seen how many will result.

Some researchers predict England could start recording more than 500 daily Covid-19 deaths before the end of the month.

Academics at the University of Cambridge, whose estimates feed No.10’s advisory group, SAGE, estimate that 47,000 people were infected every day in their last screening of October 9.

They believe cases double in less than seven days, with a “substantial proportion” of those asymptomatic.

Despite figures showing cases are still far lower than they were when the spring pandemic peaked, academics predicted 500 people could die every day by October 29.

This is darker than the bold claims of Number 10’s two top advisers, who warned the figure could reach 200 by the end of the month.

Data from Public Health England (PHE) and NHS England on confirmed Covid-19 deaths and antibody prevalence is used, along with information from Google and the ONS on the mixing between different age groups, to predict the numbers.

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