Keeping the over-50s longer in isolation and requiring people to prove their age when they are & # 39; the safest way to exclude & # 39;, researchers claim.
A study by Warwick University found that a & # 39; rolling age release strategy & # 39; the best option was to terminate the introduced lockdown to slow the spread of the deadly coronavirus.
The strategy proposed by researchers is based on the fact that COVID-19 death rates among 50-year-olds are 20 times higher than deaths among 20-year-olds.
Study authors wrote that police officers should be given the power to find prisoners who were not captured who did not break the age rule to ensure it was followed.
In an extreme example – set by the authors of a study based on Chinese data – they said that releasing more than 50 years early without a vaccine could see 40,000 additional people die.
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The researcher's proposed strategy is based on the fact that COVID-19 deaths among 50-year-olds are 20 times greater than deaths among 20-year-olds
This graph shows the & # 39; relative risk of death & # 39; of coronavirus for each age group compared to those in their 20s – based on release of form protection before a vaccine is available. Not to be confused with the rate of & # 39; death
In & # 39; e study & # 39; Age, death risk and the design of an exit strategy & # 39; The Warwick researchers shared five benefits of basing the end of lockdown on age.
They say that an age-based release recognizes that & # 39; we cannot wait indefinitely to reopen the economy & # 39; and the & # 39; safest way to do this is before a vaccine is available & # 39 ;.
Andrew Oswald, professor of economics and behavioral science at Warwick, said people older than 50 & # 39; don't realize the danger they are about. & # 39;
& # 39; Our age risk graphics should be understood by everyone. They show very clearly that younger people are at much less risk of death from COVID-19 than older citizens.
& # 39; Any lockdown release policy that does not design itself to this & # 39; age gradient & # 39; at risk of human coronavirus will have dangerous consequences, & # 39; said Oswald.
Authors say that young healthy people are best placed to survive the virus and should be released in & # 39; the first wave of a & # 39; age-related & # 39; lockdown release schedule
The researchers say that older people should be locked up for longer if & # 39; younger people are far, far, safer & # 39 ;.
Law enforcement is a concern that the researchers have called in their paper, saying people are reluctant to stay inside for longer.
& # 39; How would an age-based release rule be enforced? After all, police officers should be given the right to detain prisoners who are not being caught who are breaking the age rule.
& # 39; As we have explained elsewhere, the vast majority of & # 39; & # 39; Citizens in the United Kingdom are driving licenses that allow a police officer to check their date of birth, & # 39; she wrote.
She added that a rolling age exemption poses the lowest risk and reduces the chance of people being recalled for a second round of lockdowns.
& # 39; In principle, the young should be able to remain released once, & # 39; say researchers.
A number of studies have shown the fact that the risk of death from coronavirus increases with age.
People under 50 have a less than 0.5 percent chance of death from COVId-19, but it jumps to 1.3 percent for more than 50.
It gets even higher as you get older – with a drop rate of 3.6 per cent for over 60 and 8 per cent for over 70.
NHS expert Mike Fischer agrees that more than 50s should stay home during the coronavirus outbreak.
Warwick researchers say there are five key reasons why young people should be released first
It recognizes that we cannot wait indefinitely to reopen the economy;
It is the safest way to do this before a vaccine is available;
It is the least likely strategy to require that people later be painfully recalled in further rounds of lockdown, in order that the young should in principle remain once released;
It plays useful for time when researchers are working on a vaccine;
It is focused on the group currently hit the hardest financially.
Official data – collected by the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center of NHS Critical Care Units – shows more than 54 per cent of COVID-19 patients eligible for urgent care are between 50 and 69 years old .
Almost three-quarters of critically ill people are overweight or overweight.
There are five tests outlined by the government that could lock up the lockdown, including getting the infection rate lower and available tests.
The tests also include ensuring the NHS has sufficient capacity, a sustained fall in daily deaths, PPE is available and measures do not risk a second peak of infections.
Not everyone agrees that this is the best approach, Dr Thomas House, a University of Manchester statistician, said young people could get a false sense of security.
& # 39; As younger individuals begin to mix again and we see an increase in & # 39; e prevalence of coronavirus infections, that will unexpectedly increase the number of cases in older people who are & # 39; most at risk of dying once infected, & # 39; he told & # 39; a telegraph.
& # 39; It is also likely that there are many younger individuals who have massively increased risk compared to others of their age due to factors we are not yet able to identify via epidemiological analysis, and that should therefore be seriously mistreated by the kind of proposed charts by the authors. & # 39;
The Warwick team said the toughest part could be in convincing the public of the importance and benefit of a rolling age-free strategy.
& # 39; Strategies for building public support for a rolling release can include clear communication about the reason for the strategy, and online resources to help people understand their own personal risk profiles, & # 39; wrote the team in a release.
This graph is an extreme example, using Chinese data to estimate the impact that an early release of each age group would have on coronavirus deaths in the United Kingdom. They found that the most at risk group is the over 60's and the lowest risk is those in their 20's
Researchers say that the oldest groups – including those over 70 – should be the last to be released from lockdown, because age is an important factor in COVID-19 survival
Nick Powdthavee, professor of Behavioral Economics at Warwick Business School, said: & # 39; We believe that an age-based strategy along the lines that we describe has the potential to reach the right balance between epidemiology and economics. & # 39; 39;
However, the researchers do not think that older people should keep out of work, but that they should use technology such as Zoom and Microsoft Teams.
& # 39; Make sure they do not & # 39; If left unchecked, older workers can play a vital role as supervisors and mentors who do not use the communication technologies that have come to a close, & # 39; he said.
Researchers say an app could be developed that does not put people at their own risk supplies of coronavirus with the latest epidemiological evidence.
& # 39; A release of younger people, perhaps we appreciate, resentment among those older than the released age group, & # 39; she wrote.
& # 39; However, to insure them, the older groups could be told when their turn would eventually arrive, and they could be encouraged to run a website sponsored by the right pattern of risk -per age of the virus. & # 39;
They said that & # 39; one of & # 39; A hallmark of COVID-19 is that younger people are far, far safer & # 39; yet, many of & # 39; a global discussion on a & # 39; exit strategy & # 39; this & # 39; fundamental, and potentially pivotal, piece of knowledge & # 39 ;. .
The paper is available on the Warwick University website.